Real AI diffusion Case / frozen public view

The sources stay attached to the forecast.

Its cited passages carry into a quarterly framework for judging AI diffusion.

Case: DB639C2F
Subject: AI diffusion and U.S. productivity
State: drafted
Created: 5 Aug 2026
Updated: 5 Aug 2026

Case question

How should we estimate AI diffusion’s incremental effect on U.S. labor productivity in 2027 and 2028?

What this page shows

One drafted Living Case, its source-use accounting, and one official record you can open at the cited words.

What it does not claim

The scenario bands are decision inputs, not observed macro results or a claim that AI caused measured productivity growth.

Research run

One question. A bounded research pass.

Starglass built a bear, base, and bull framework with explicit gates for adoption, workflow conversion, sector breadth, and measurement lag.

Deep Researchdrafted

Bear, base, and bull framework with quarterly update gates

297Sources collected

271Sources captured

26Documents used

Run25CF9A7A

Window5 Aug 2026 · 06:21 UTC
5 Aug 2026 · 07:10 UTC

Source useat close

It cites passages, not a raw discovery pile.

47Cited passages

32Official passages

90Citation placements

Captured documents26

Official documents17

Collected and captured count source rows. Used documents, passages, and citation placements are separate measures and do not add together.

Primary record

The record stays beside the Case.

The Case keeps the official productivity baseline beside adoption, workflow-conversion, and measurement-lag evidence.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Productivity and Costs

2025 annual averages and fourth-quarter results

Record: USDL-26-0407
Document date: 24 Mar 2026
Location: Annual average changes table

Open one citation

U.S. nonfarm business labor productivity rose 2.1% in 2025, after 3.0% in 2024. ^[18]

Hover this citation for its receipt, or use its source link to read the complete release on bls.gov.

Source use at close

The Case uses what it can point to.

Every one of the 47 indexed passages appears in the final Case. The Case uses them 90 times across the analysis, while keeping forecasts clearly separate from observed results.

47Cited passages used

26Captured documents used

90Citation placements

Official-source detail

Official passages: 32
Official documents: 17
Indexed passages used: 47/47

Official: BLS, Census, Federal Reserve, BEA, and other first-party records.
Used: A source-index passage cited at least once in the final Case body.
Captured: The source text was retained with a content binding for later inspection.

Source use is not a correctness score. It shows what the Case can trace back to captured evidence.

Forecasts remain labeled assumptions.Case state / drafted

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